With former U.S. President Donald Trump overwhelmingly winning the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to select the Republican presidential candidate, the 2024 U.S. presidential election has also begun in earnest. State-by-state primaries will continue until the end of this spring, and the final presidential candidates will be selected through the Republican and Democratic National Conventions in July and August of this year, respectively. However, the US presidential election appears to have already been narrowed down to a contest between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Trump.

Former President Trump defeated his rivals by double-digit margins in both Iowa and New Hampshire. In the South Carolina primary to be held on the 24th of next month, he will face former Ambassador Nikki Haley, who served as the governor of this region and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration. Former Ambassador Haley, who is currently classified as a moderate in the Republican Party dominated by conservative populists, is falling far behind former President Trump even in her home state of South Carolina. It is highly likely that he will not last long in the primary.

President Biden's re-election path faces no significant challenges within the Democratic Party. However, concerns are growing as he is 82 years old and various controversies arise as a result of this at every public event. Former President Trump, who is 78 years old, will also become the oldest U.S. president on the day of his inauguration if he succeeds in coming back to power, but his age is not a big problem. With both President Biden and former President Trump falling below 50% approval ratings in opinion polls, there is talk of a third candidate. However, historically speaking, it is difficult for a third-party candidate to succeed.

Public opinion polls regarding the rematch between President Biden and former President Trump show that it is a close race, with former President Trump slightly ahead. Former President Trump has a very strong base in the conservative wing of the Republican Party. This is expected to be the driving force behind former President Trump's victory in the presidential candidate selection process, despite some resistance from mainstream Republicans. But former President Trump's extreme views and legal risks will limit his appeal in the presidential election.

Until his election, former President Trump must appear in several trials in federal and state courts. He has already been found guilty of sexual assault and defamation in a New York state court. He was also criminally indicted on charges of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and inciting supporters to storm the National Assembly. Former President Trump had some success in convincing his supporters that this legal risk was political persecution by the Biden administration. However, such arguments may be effective in the party primary process, but they can be a huge burden in the presidential election.

An effective re-election strategy for President Biden may be to highlight the damage former President Trump caused to U.S. diplomacy during his tenure. His reckless foreign policy threatened the international order. In addition, former President Trump's refusal to accept his defeat in the 2020 presidential election posed a fundamental challenge to American democracy.

The Democratic Party will emphasize that the world needs President Biden's steady hand as the United States must deal with the hegemonic conflict with China and the war in Ukraine. It will also emphasize that the recent U.S. economic situation is good, including rising growth rates, increased employment, falling prices, and rising stock markets. Biden's re-election camp is encouraged by the improving economic indicators.

In conclusion, I recommend to Korean readers not to take too seriously the opinion polls that show former President Trump currently ahead. There is almost a year left until the November presidential election. Considering the legal risks facing former President Trump, a lot could happen in the meantime. Above all, despite former President Trump's claims, he was not always the winner in past elections. President Biden beat former President Trump by a large margin in the 2020 presidential election. In the 2016 presidential election, then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton defeated former President Trump in total votes.